Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.