🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Profited $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was officially announced, sparking debate about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the period preceding Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. A particular user, which joined the platform in December and made four bets, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a initial bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the odds had climbed to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sudden change in betting activity just before the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate. Several of other traders also earned large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Emerges Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule presented on Monday would prevent public officials from making trades on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in recent years, with participants able to predict everything from elections to current affairs. This sector faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting industry. A company executive for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."