Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."